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Papers in Refereed Journals

 

Gharehgozli, A. H., J. Mileski and Duru O. (2016).  Heuristic Estimation of Container Stacking and Reshuffling Operations under the Containership Delay Factor and Mega-Ship Challenge. Maritime Policy and Management (in press).

 

Angelopoulos J., O. Duru, C. Chlomoudis (2016).  Spectral dynamics of dry cargo shipping markets. theory of long waves–fact or artifact. International Journal of Transport Economics, 43 (2), 227-246.

 

Bulut E., Huang S.T. and Duru O. (2015).  A Multi-Dimension QFD Design for the Service Quality Assessment of Kansai International Airport-Japan. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence (in press).

 

Huang S.T., Bulut E. and Duru O. (2015).  Multi-dimensional Service Improvement under the Multi-Customer Nature of Container Terminals. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics (in press).

 

Bulut, E., Duru, O. and Koçak, G. (2015). Rotational priority investigation in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process design: An empirical study on the marine engine selection problem. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 39(2), 913-923.

 

Huang, S. T., Bulut, E., Duru, O., Hwan, C. N. Y. and Yoshida, S. (2015). Service quality assessment in liner shipping industry: an empirical study on Asian shipping case. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 7(2), 221-242.

 

Duru, O. (2015). Irrationality in Politics and Governance of Maritime Affairs: The Collapse of Sovereign Maritime Governance. International Journal of e-Navigation and Maritime Economy, 1, 48-59.

 

Duru, O., Brooks, M. R., Talley, W. and Yeo, G. T. (2014). Editorial: Governance in the Maritime Industry, Selected papers from The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Theme: “Maritime Economics in a Post-Expansion Panama Canal Era”, July 15-18, 2014. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 30(3), 269-271.

 

Duru, O. and Bulut, E. (2014). A non-linear clustering method for fuzzy time series: Histogram damping partition under the optimized cluster paradox. Applied Soft Computing, 24, 742-748.

 

Tuna, O. and Duru, O. (2013).  Editorial: Current State and Future of Shipping and Logistics. The Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics, 29(2), 121-124.

 

Duru, O. (2013).  Irrational exuberance, overconfidence and short-termism: Knowledge-to-action asymmetry in shipping asset management. The Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics, 29(1), 43-58.

 

Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2013).  Market entry, asset returns, and irrational exuberance: Asset management anomalies in dry cargo shipping. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 5(6), 652-667 (Selected by Guest Editor Paul Tae Woo Lee for special issue @IAME 2012 Conference, Taipei, Taiwan).

 

Huang S.T., Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2013).  Service quality evaluation of international logistics company: An empirical case using QFD approach. JRI Journal of International Logistics and Trade, Vol. 10(3), 31-54 (Selected for special issue @IAME 2012 Conference, Taipei, Taiwan).

 

Duru, O., Huang, S.T., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2012). Multi-Layer Quality Function Deployment (QFD) approach for improving the compromised quality satisfaction under the agency problem: A 3D QFD design for the asset selection problem in the shipping industry. Quality & Quantity, June 2013, Vol. 47(4), 2259-2280.

 

Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  Fuzzy integrated logical forecasting model for the time charter rates of dry bulk shipping: A vector autoregressive design of fuzzy time series with fuzzy c-means clustering. Maritime Economics & Logistics, Vol. 14, 300-318 (Selected by Guest Editor Kevin Cullinane for special issue @IAME 2011 Conference, Santiago, Chile).

 

Duru, O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2012). Regime switching AHP model for choice-varying priorities problem and expert consistency prioritization: A cubic fuzzy-priority matrix design. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 39(5), 4954-4964.

 

Duru, O. (2012). A multivariate model of Fuzzy Integrated Logical Forecasting method (M-FILF) and multiplicative time series clustering: A model of time-varying volatility for dry cargo freight market. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 39(4), 4135-4142.

 

Huang S.T., Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2012). Service Quality Evaluation of International Logistics Company: An Empirical Case Using QFD Approach. Journal of International Logistics and Trade, Vol. 10(3), 31-54.

 

Bulut E., Duru O., Keçeci T. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  Use of consistency index, decision prioritization and direct numerical inputs for generic Fuzzy-AHP modeling: A process model for shipping asset management. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 39(2), 1911-1923.

 

Duru O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  A fuzzy extended DELPHI method for adjustment of statistical time series prediction: An empirical study on dry bulk freight market case. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 39(1), 840-848.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2011).  Long term freight market index and inferences (Int. Exchange Award-JSLSE, republication by the copyright transfer of the Journal of Logistics and Shipping Economics). The Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics, Vol. 27(3), 405-422.

 

Duru, O. (2011).  Incentives and sentiments in shipping investments: Intermediary prospects between the impatient capital and long-term competitiveness. Journal of Logistics and Shipping Economics, Vol. 45, 63-72.

 

Duru O., and Yoshida, S. (2011).  Intra-week Trends in Dry Bulk Freight Market: Models of Short Term Estimation. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 9, pp. 58-65.

 

Duru O., and Yoshida, S. (2011).  Centennial decline of shipping freight rates and life cycle effect: Theory of long term cycles. Journal of Faculty of Maritime, Dokuz Eylul University, Turkey, Vol. 3, Issue 2, pp. 59-77.

 

Duru O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Bivariate long term fuzzy time series forecasting of dry cargo freight rates. The Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics, Vol. 26(2), 205-223.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Long term freight market index and inferences. Journal of Logistics and Shipping Economics, Vol. 44, 39-48 (International Exchange Award-JSLSE).

 

Bulut E., Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Multi-attribute decision making for crew nationality pattern selection in the shipping business: An empirical study for Turkish shipping case. The Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics, Vol. 26(1), 139-152.

 

Duru, O. (2010).  Fuzzy integrated logical forecasting model for dry bulk shipping index forecasting: An improved fuzzy time series approach. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 37(7), 5372-5380.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2009).  Judgmental forecasting in the dry bulk shipping business: Statistical vs. judgmental approach. The Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics, Vol. 25(2), 189-217.

 

 

 

Proceedings of Refereed Conferences

 

Duru, O. (2014).  The Anatomy of the Ship Mortgage Crisis and Regulative Instruments. International Conference of Asian Shipping and Logistics (ICASL) 2014, Seoul.

 

Duru O. (2014). Motivations behind Irrationality in the Shipping Asset Management: Assumptions Drive Investors. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Norfolk VA.

 

Bulut E. and Duru O. (2014). Retrospective Data Size Setting for Financial Ship Valuation: The Market Price vs. Asset Valuation Paradox and the Long Term Asset Valuation. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Norfolk VA.

 

Huang S.T., Bulut E. and Duru O. (2014). Multi-dimensional Service Improvement under the Multi-Customer Nature of Port Terminal. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Norfolk VA.

 

Duru O. (2014). Irrationality in politics and governance of maritime affairs: The collapse of sovereign maritime governance. International Symposium on Advanced Intelligent Maritime Safety and Technology, Mokpo.

 

Duru O. (2013). The role of predictions in Transport Policy making and the forecasting profession: Common failures in the literature. World Conference on Transport Research, Young Initiative, Rio de Janeiro.

 

Duru O., Bulut E., Huang S.T. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  Shipping performance assessment and the role of key performance indicators (KPIs): “Quality Function Deployment” for transforming ship-owner’s expectation. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Taipei, Taiwan (Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2195984).

 

Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  Market entry, asset returns, and irrational exuberance: Asset management anomalies in dry cargo shipping. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Taipei, Taiwan (Selected for special issue of International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics).

 

Huang S.T., Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  Service quality evaluation of international logistics company: An empirical case using QFD approach. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Taipei, Taiwan (Selected for JRI Journal of International Logistics and Trade).

 

Gao Z.Y., Duru O., Bulut E., Huang S.T. and Yoshida, S. (2012).  Performance assessment for liner shipping industry: A multi-attribute analysis by the Balanced Scorecard (BSC). The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Taipei, Taiwan.

 

Duru, O. (2012).  Irrational exuberance, overconfidence and short-termism: Knowledge-to-action asymmetry in shipping asset management. International Conference of Asian Shipping and Logistics (ICASL) 2012, Yeosu (Selected for Asian Journal of Shipping & Logistics).

 

Duru, O., Yoshida, S. and Y. Volkan Aydogdu (2012). The Lead-lag interactions between dry cargo freight market and the vessel traffic in Istanbul Strait. WCTRS SIG2 Maritime and Ports Conference 2012, Antwerp.

 

Bulut E., Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2012). Exponential Length of Intervals for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting. Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics 2012-IEEE, New York.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2012). Modeling principles in fuzzy time series forecasting. Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics 2012-IEEE, New York.

 

Bulut E., Duru O. and Yoshida, S. (2011).  Fuzzy integrated logical forecasting model for the time charter rates of dry bulk shipping: A vector autoregressive design of fuzzy time series with fuzzy c-means clustering. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Santiago, Chile (selected for journal publication).

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2011).  Is Fuzzy Time Series a fallacy? : Potentials and limitations of fuzzy set approach in time series analysis. International Symposium on Forecasting, Prague.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2011).  Intra-week Trends in Dry Bulk Freight Market: Models of Short Term Estimation. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.8, Jeju.

 

Duru, O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Delphi forecasting in shipping industry: Performance and validity. The First Global International Conference on Innovation in Marine Technology and Future of Maritime Transportation, Istanbul.

 

Bulut E., Duru, O., and Aydogdu, V. (2010).  Comparative Analysis for the Selection of Hazardous Area in Istanbul Strait. The First Global International Conference on Innovation in Marine Technology and Future of Maritime Transportation, Istanbul.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010). Seasonality patterns in dry cargo vessel traffic of the Strait of Istanbul and interactions with freight rates. The 3rd International Conference on Transportation and Logistics (T-LOG), Fukuoka.

 

Bulut E., Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010). Chartering strategy selection in the dry bulk shipping assets: Spot vs. period trading. The 3rd International Conference on Transportation and Logistics (T-LOG), Fukuoka.

 

Bulut E., Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010). Management strategy for shipping company: Multi-attribute decision making process in the management outsourcing. The 3rd International Conference on Transportation and Logistics (T-LOG), Fukuoka.

 

Bulut E., Yoshida, S. and Duru, O. (2010).  Cognitive model of dry bulk carrier investment decision by utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process. The 8th IEEE Conference on Industrial Informatics (INDIN), Osaka.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Fuzzy time series methods for shipping freight markets. The 12th World Conference on Transport Research, Lisbon.

 

Duru, O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Modeling and simulation of variability and uncertainty in ship investments: Implementation of fuzzy Monte-Carlo method. The 12th World Conference on Transport Research, Lisbon.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Life expectancy and shipping costs: Interactions on bicentennial life cycles. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Lisbon.

 

Duru, O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Pattern recognition by heuristic fuzzy inference system for shipping market volatility. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Lisbon.

 

Duru, O. (2010).  Theory of shipping productivity revisited: industrial revolution, ship technology and shipping freight rates. The 74th Conference of Japan Society of History of Economic Thought, Toyama.

 

Duru, O. and Yurtoren, C. (2010).  Collective solidarity and social incentives as a shipping policy (in Turkish). The Conference of National Society on Coastal Zone, Trabzon.

 

Duru, O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Bivariate long term fuzzy time series forecasting of dry cargo freight rates. Gwangyang Port Forum and the 3rd AJSL Conference, Gwangyang.

 

Bulut E., Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Multi-attribute analysis of ship investments under technical terms: A fuzzy extended TOPSIS approach. International Conference on Industrial and Logistics Technology-IEEE, Singapore.

 

Duru, O., Bulut E. and Yoshida, S. (2010).  Fuzzy extended group consensus of judgmental adjustments on statistical forecasts. International Conference on Computer and Automation Engineering, Singapore.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2009).  Long term freight market index and inferences. The Conference of Japan Society of Logistics and Shipping Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2009).  Comparative analysis of fuzzy time series and judgmental forecasting: An empirical study of forecasting dry bulk shipping index. International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong.

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2008).  Composite forecast: A new approach for forecasting shipping markets. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Dalian.

 

Duru, O. (2007). Shipping cost analysis for Turkish coal import. The International Logistics Congress, Istanbul.

 

Duru, O. and Ekinci, Y. (2007).  Weighted ordinal intersection method application for shipping projects. The International IFAC Symposium on Computational Economics & Financial and Industrial Systems, Istanbul.

 

Duru, O. and Guler, N. (2007).  Turkish coal import shipping, Turkish fleet supply-demand analysis. The Conference of International Association of Maritime Economists, Athens.

 

 

 

Book Reviews

 

The Shipping Man (A Novel), Matthew McCleery (Author), Marine Money International, 2nd edition (Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, in press).

 

Maritime Governance and Policy Making, Michael Roe (Author), Springer-Verlag, London, 2013, first edition (The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, Vol.29 (3) Dec 2013 Issue).

 

Dynasties of the Sea: The Shipowners and Financiers Who Expanded the Era of Free Trade, Lori Ann LaRocco (Author), Matthew McCleery (Epilogue, Preface), Martin Stopford (Afterword), Lawrence Lindsey (Foreword), Marine Money, Intl.; 1st edition (November 12, 2012) (The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, Vol.29(2) Aug 2013 Issue).

 

 

 

Invited Talks & Special Lectures

 

Guest Speaker: “Behavioral Economics and Finance in the Transportation Industry”, Logistics and Transport Conference to Exchange Best Practices on Regulations and Experiences in ASEAN Region, 10-11 December 2014, Ha Noi, Viet Nam.

 

Guest Speaker: “Towards regulatory best practice in facilitating trade and investment in logistics and transport services”, Logistics and Transport Conference to Exchange Best Practices on Regulations and Experiences In ASEAN Region, 10-11 December 2014, Ha Noi, Viet Nam.

 

Special Lecture: “Behavioral Economics of Shipping Business”, 28th November 2014, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong.

 

Guest Speaker: “Liquidity Trap and Arbitrary Valuation in the Shipping Business: The Anatomy of the Ship Mortgage Crisis”, October 30th – November 2nd 2014, ICASL 2014, Seoul, South Korea.

 

Invited Lecture: “Fundamentals of Economics”, 30th September 2014, Curriculum Development & Academic Twinning Seminar for Savannakhet University, JICA Lao PDR & IMaRC Kobe University, Kobe, Japan.

 

Guest Speaker: “Functions of Maritime Governance and Maritime Policy: Focus of Rule-maker and Illusion of Control”, 14th March 2014, Joint seminar with the Department of Public Works and Transport (DPWT), Savannakhet University, Savannakhet, Lao PDR.

 

Guest Speaker: “Bicentennial cycles of dry cargo shipping: An economic history perspective. The theory of centennial decline revisited”, 28th March 2011, Kansai Chapter Meeting, Japan Society of Logistics & Shipping Economics, Kobe, Japan.

 

 

 

Publications in the lay press or Scientific magazines

 

The Maritime Economist

Duru, O. Editorial: Rolling the Snowball, June 2015.

Duru, O. Editorial: Maritime Empathy: ME - How can we integrate academic and business excellence?, March 2015.

 

Lloyd’s Shipping Economist

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. Market psychology, August 2008.

 

Marine & Commerce

Duru, O. Tonnage trends of Turkish coal import shipping, June 2007.

Duru, O. Market Analysis and current issues in port projects, July 2007.

Duru, O. What does the abundance of new construction in 2007 signal? September 2007.

Duru, O. Ceyhan: New player in tanker transportation, October 2007.

Duru, O. Education abroad a new generation of directors in shipping, November 2007.

Duru, O. Cartels in shipping: Is shipping an open market or a monopoly? December 2007.

Duru, O. Forecasting in shipping: Freight market, catalyst countries and future scenarios, January 2008.

Duru, O. World merchant fleet - Fleet capacity snowballs, February 2008.

Duru, O. Gales in freight, March 2008.

Duru, O. Seasonality in dry bulk, April 2008.

Duru, O. Post-2008 scenarios in dry bulk freight market, May 2008.

Duru, O. Transport geography and long term metamorphosis, June 2008.

Duru, O. Megatrends & Barriers of ports, July 2008.

Duru, O. How risky is inflation? August 2008.

 

‘Persembe Rotasý’- Route of Thursday Weekly Turkish Shipping Journal

 

Duru, O. Turkish Tanker Fleet and Crude Oil Shipping, June 2, 2005.

Duru, O. Dry Bulk Market: Resistance Point of Downward Trend, How Much Near? August 11, 2005.

Duru, O. German Flag Trend: KG Shipping, April, 2006.

Duru, O. Freight Derivatives & FFA Market, July, 2006.

 

“KAIUN” (海運) Japanese Shipping Magazine

 

Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2009).  Forecasting shipping markets under unexpected movements: Judgmental forecasting is an option (in Japanese). KAIUN Japanese Shipping Magazine 976, 107-109.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright Okan Duru©2014